Fundamentals, Speculation, and Oil Prices
Solid line: price of West Texas Intermediate with NYMEX near-month futures price in dollars per barrel (left scale). Dotted line: Long positions in oil futures index fund deduced using the methodology of the Masters (2008) (in number of contracts or equivalently thousands of barrels, right scale). Source: Singleton (2011).The chart above shows the relationship between crude oil prices (solid line) and estimated (dotted line) of the total number of futures contracts for crude oil held by the funds seek to track the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index or 'separated Dow Jones-AIG index.One of the issues discussed at the conference was some of the problems associated with these estimates of investment Commodity Index Fund.
But a separate issue I wanted to make is that someone following such investment strategy was to buy not only crude oil contracts, but a variety of other futures contracts as well. For example, a fund following the index would be a long position on future natural gas. The graph below compares the price of crude oil to natural gas prices. Although these once sold for about the same price per Btu, they now differ by a factor of 4.Why not buy index funds pushed up the price of natural gas and crude oil? The answer is obvious to us all. The rise of natural gas production in the United States has irresistible downward pressure on natural gas prices, a fact that completely swamps any effect claimed that the purchase of commodity indices could possibly have.
Here's another example that some people love to give, by comparing the price of crude oil with that of rhodium, the last cut so that the two prices were comparable in 2005.The price of rhodium has increased dramatically compared to the crude oil in the coming years. This, too, had nothing to do with the purchase of Index Fund investing. Neither GSCI or DJ-AIG understands that good, in fact, to my knowledge it is impossible to buy a futures contract of rhodium.
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Green line: six times the US natural gas wellhead price in dollars per thousand cubic feet (data source: EIA). Here's another example some people like to give, comparing the price of crude oil with that of rhodium, with the latter scaled so that the
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What You Need to Know About Commodity Options Trading ...
Who would have thought that gas prices would go up if you wished you had invested on it? With the rising price of gold at such a pace that he had spent from 00 and up, you do not wish you had bought earlier? Most would not have a second look at most products because it was considered by most as a basic necessity of everyday life. However, there are people who engage in commodity options trading because they know the value and commodity prices are not going to demand.
In commodity options trading, we are talking mainly of raw materials such as metals, agricultural products and natural gas. Take the case of a cotton farmer who can not enter into a contract to sell their products before it is harvested at a value greater than the current market price.
If you are a commodity trader who received a contract you may enter into a contract for goods knowing that there is likely hood that the price of this product will increase due to future market conditions for some .
Although there is an upward trend in a commodity, but this can not always be accurate because there are many other factors that may affect the direction of price movements.
As in all professions, there is always a buyer for commodity options contracts. This is because the demand for any commodity will simply never ends. It is rare to find people who have invested in commodity options trading and failed to earn profits.
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